Sporting CP host Guimaraes in the Primeira Liga on Monday 4 May, with kick-off at 20:15 (WAT) at Estádio José Alvalade. Sporting CP are 3rd with 24 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Guimaraes sit 14th on 9 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sporting CP's last 5: DDDLW Most recently they drew with Tondela 2–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.3 for Sporting CP and 0.8 for Guimaraes. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 62% and both teams to score at 51%.
Our pre-match pick was Sporting CP to win – a 72% chance at odds of 1.23. Predicted score: Sporting CP 2–0 Guimaraes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sporting CP72%fair 1.40 · @1.23
Draw17%fair 5.97 · @5.70
Guimaraes12%fair 8.60 · @12.00
3.09Expected goals
2.30Sporting CP xG
0.79Guimaraes xG
51%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–010%
2–110%
3–09%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Sporting CP 2.3 – 0.8 Guimaraes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sporting CP to win✓
72%
1.40
1.23
Double chance
Sporting CP or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
1.67
Half-time result
Sporting CP ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sporting CP / FT Sporting CP✓
47%
2.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.33
–
Form
Sporting CP – last 6
DDDLWL
29 Apr
vs Tondela
2–2
D
22 Apr
@ FC Porto
0–0
D
15 Apr
@ Arsenal
0–0
D
7 Apr
vs Arsenal
0–1
L
17 Mar
vs BodoGlimt
3–0
W
11 Mar
@ BodoGlimt
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Guimaraes – last 1
W
3 Apr
vs Tondela
5–0
W
5.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting CP and Guimaraes.
What is the prediction for Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Our pick is Sporting CP to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
On our numbers Sporting CP have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Guimaraes 12%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Our predicted score is Sporting CP 2–0 Guimaraes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Sporting CP vs Guimaraes (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Alvalade.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
