Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGIL Vicente to win ✓65% · @1.62
Double chanceGIL Vicente or draw ✓86% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.11
GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia preview and prediction
The match
GIL Vicente host Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga on Monday 27 April, with kick-off at 20:15 (WAT) at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos. GIL Vicente are 7th with 18 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Casa Pia sit 16th on 8 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
GIL Vicente's last 5: DWDLL Most recently they drew with Tondela 2–2 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Casa Pia's last 5: LDLDL Most recently they lost to SC Braga 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game.
GIL Vicente arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for GIL Vicente and 0.7 for Casa Pia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: GIL Vicente 65%, draw 21%, Casa Pia 14%.
Safer route: GIL Vicente or draw (86%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 55% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: GIL Vicente 1–0 Casa Pia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
GIL Vicente65%fair 1.55 · @1.62
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.70
Casa Pia14%fair 7.19 · @5.50
2.58Expected goals
1.86GIL Vicente xG
0.72Casa Pia xG
55%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: GIL Vicente 1.9 – 0.7 Casa Pia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
GIL Vicente to win✓
65%
1.55
1.62
Double chance
GIL Vicente or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Half-time result
GIL Vicente ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT GIL Vicente / FT GIL Vicente✗
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.11
–
Form
GIL Vicente – last 5
DWDLL
13 Apr
@ Tondela
2–2
D
3 Apr
vs AVS
3–0
W
8 Mar
@ Estrela
2–2
D
2 Mar
vs Benfica
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Estoril
1–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Casa Pia – last 5
LDLDL
23 Apr
vs SC Braga
0–1
L
6 Apr
vs Benfica
1–1
D
20 Mar
@ Estrela
0–4
L
1 Mar
vs Moreirense
1–1
D
23 Feb
@ Famalicao
0–2
L
0.4Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between GIL Vicente and Casa Pia.
What is the prediction for GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
On our numbers GIL Vicente have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Casa Pia 14%.
How many goals will there be in GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
Our predicted score is GIL Vicente 1–0 Casa Pia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
