Estoril travel to Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in the Primeira Liga on Monday 20 April (20:15 WAT) to face Moreirense. Moreirense are 9th with 14 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Estoril sit 18th on 2 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Moreirense's last 3: DDW Most recently they drew with Famalicao 1–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Estoril's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Arouca 2–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Moreirense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.3 for Moreirense and 1.5 for Estoril. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 62%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Moreirense 1–1 Estoril. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Moreirense35%fair 2.84 · @2.96
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.30
Estoril41%fair 2.44 · @2.32
2.82Expected goals
1.35Moreirense xG
1.47Estoril xG
62%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–26%
From our goals model: Moreirense 1.3 – 1.5 Estoril expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Estoril to win✗
41%
2.44
2.32
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.91
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Estoril / FT Estoril✗
24%
4.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.47
–
Form
Moreirense – last 3
DDW
10 Apr
@ Famalicao
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Casa Pia
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Rio Ave
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Estoril – last 6
LLWLWL
6 Apr
@ Arouca
2–3
L
22 Mar
vs Rio Ave
1–2
L
15 Mar
@ Nacional
1–0
W
27 Feb
@ Sporting CP
0–3
L
22 Feb
vs GIL Vicente
3–1
W
15 Feb
@ AVS
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Moreirense and Estoril.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Moreirense vs Estoril?
On our numbers Moreirense have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Estoril 41%.
How many goals will there be in Moreirense vs Estoril?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Moreirense vs Estoril?
Our predicted score is Moreirense 1–1 Estoril, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Moreirense vs Estoril?
Moreirense vs Estoril (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 20 April 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
