The Primeira Liga sees Estrela take on Casa Pia on Friday 20 March, kicking off at 21:15 (WAT) at Estádio José Gomes. Estrela are 12th with 10 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Casa Pia sit 16th on 8 points (in the bottom three). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Estrela's last 3: LDL Most recently they lost to Rio Ave 1–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Estrela and 1.3 for Casa Pia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Estrela 39%, draw 24%, Casa Pia 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.91.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Estrela 1–1 Casa Pia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estrela39%fair 2.57 · @2.45
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.25
Casa Pia37%fair 2.70 · @2.82
2.59Expected goals
1.31Estrela xG
1.27Casa Pia xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Estrela 1.3 – 1.3 Casa Pia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Estrela to win✓
39%
2.57
2.45
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Estrela / FT Estrela✓
22%
4.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.09
–
Form
Estrela – last 3
LDL
15 Mar
@ Rio Ave
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs GIL Vicente
2–2
D
20 Feb
vs Tondela
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Casa Pia – last 2
DL
1 Mar
vs Moreirense
1–1
D
23 Feb
@ Famalicao
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estrela and Casa Pia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
On our numbers Estrela have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Casa Pia 37%.
How many goals will there be in Estrela vs Casa Pia?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Our predicted score is Estrela 1–1 Casa Pia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Estrela vs Casa Pia (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Gomes.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
