Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Famalicao to win @ 1.84 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFamalicao to win ✓63% · @1.84
Double chanceFamalicao or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.95
Famalicao vs Arouca preview and prediction
The match
Famalicao host Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Friday 6 March, with kick-off at 21:15 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao. Famalicao are 10th with 13 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Arouca sit 5th on 20 points (in the top half).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Famalicao and 0.8 for Arouca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Famalicao 63%, draw 21%, Arouca 17%.
Safer route: Famalicao or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Famalicao to win at 1.84 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Famalicao or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Famalicao 1–0 Arouca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Famalicao63%fair 1.60 · @1.84
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.50
Arouca17%fair 5.99 · @4.10
2.70Expected goals
1.87Famalicao xG
0.83Arouca xG
54%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Famalicao 1.9 – 0.8 Arouca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Famalicao to win✓
63%
1.60
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Famalicao or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.98
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Half-time result
Famalicao ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Famalicao / FT Famalicao✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.95
–
Form
Famalicao – last 2
WL
23 Feb
vs Casa Pia
2–0
W
15 Feb
@ Sporting CP
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Arouca – last 2
LW
27 Feb
@ FC Porto
1–3
L
21 Feb
vs Nacional
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Famalicao and Arouca.
Our pick is Famalicao or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Famalicao vs Arouca?
On our numbers Famalicao have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Arouca 17%.
How many goals will there be in Famalicao vs Arouca?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our predicted score is Famalicao 1–0 Arouca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Famalicao vs Arouca?
Famalicao vs Arouca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
