Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Porto to win ✓75% · @1.11
Double chanceFC Porto or draw ✓92% · @1.01
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗81% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗14% · fair 7.08
FC Porto vs Rio Ave preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees FC Porto take on Rio Ave on Sunday 22 February, kicking off at 21:30 (WAT) at Estádio Do Dragão. FC Porto are 1st with 33 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Rio Ave sit 17th on 7 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 26 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.3 for FC Porto and 0.6 for Rio Ave. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 46% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Porto 75%, draw 18%, Rio Ave 8%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.44.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: FC Porto 2–0 Rio Ave. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Porto75%fair 1.34 · @1.11
Draw18%fair 5.66 · @7.60
Rio Ave8%fair 13.13 · @25.00
2.94Expected goals
2.32FC Porto xG
0.63Rio Ave xG
46%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–014%
1–012%
3–011%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: FC Porto 2.3 – 0.6 Rio Ave expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Porto to win✓
75%
1.34
1.11
Double chance
FC Porto or draw✓
92%
1.08
1.01
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.62
Half-time result
FC Porto ahead at half-time✓
54%
1.84
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Porto / FT FC Porto✓
51%
1.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
14%
7.08
–
Form
FC Porto – last 1
W
15 Feb
@ Nacional
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Rio Ave – last 1
L
16 Feb
vs Moreirense
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Porto and Rio Ave.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win FC Porto vs Rio Ave?
On our numbers FC Porto have a 75% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Rio Ave 8%.
How many goals will there be in FC Porto vs Rio Ave?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Porto vs Rio Ave?
Our predicted score is FC Porto 2–0 Rio Ave, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is FC Porto vs Rio Ave?
FC Porto vs Rio Ave (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Do Dragão.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
