Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2
Value bet: Alverca to win @ 2.96 – our chance 42% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlverca to win ✗42% · @2.96
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.43
Tondela vs Alverca preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees Tondela take on Alverca on Friday 13 February, kicking off at 21:45 (WAT) at Estádio João Cardoso.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Tondela and 1.3 for Alverca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tondela 34%, draw 24%, Alverca 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Alverca to win at 2.96 – 42% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Tondela 1–1 Alverca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tondela34%fair 2.94 · @2.52
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.00
Alverca42%fair 2.36 · @2.96
2.37Expected goals
1.10Tondela xG
1.27Alverca xG
54%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Tondela 1.1 – 1.3 Alverca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alverca to win✗
42%
2.36
2.96 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alverca / FT Alverca✗
23%
4.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.43
–
Form
Tondela
No recent results on record.
Alverca
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tondela and Alverca.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Tondela vs Alverca?
On our numbers Tondela have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alverca 42%.
How many goals will there be in Tondela vs Alverca?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tondela vs Alverca?
Our predicted score is Tondela 1–1 Alverca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Tondela vs Alverca?
Tondela vs Alverca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 21:45 (West Africa Time) at Estádio João Cardoso.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
