Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Warta Poznań to win @ 1.83 – our chance 61% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultWarta Poznań to win ✓61% · @1.83
Double chanceWarta Poznań or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.07
Kalisz vs Warta Poznań preview and prediction
The match
The II Liga East sees Kalisz take on Warta Poznań on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 18:30 (WAT) at Stadion Miejski.
Form guide
Kalisz's last 5: LWDDL Most recently they lost to Śląsk Wrocław II 2–3 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Warta Poznań's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Sandecja Nowy Sącz 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Warta Poznań arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.8 for Kalisz and 1.9 for Warta Poznań. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Warta Poznań to win at 1.83 – 61% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Warta Poznań or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Kalisz 0–1 Warta Poznań. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kalisz14%fair 6.90 · @3.80
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.20
Warta Poznań61%fair 1.63 · @1.83
2.73Expected goals
0.83Kalisz xG
1.90Warta Poznań xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
0–07%
From our goals model: Kalisz 0.8 – 1.9 Warta Poznań expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Warta Poznań to win✓
61%
1.63
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Warta Poznań or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Half-time result
Warta Poznań ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Warta Poznań / FT Warta Poznań✓
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.07
–
Form
Kalisz – last 6
LWDDLD
9 May
@ Śląsk Wrocław II
2–3
L
1 May
@ Resovia Rzeszów
1–0
W
17 Apr
@ Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Podhale Nowy Targ
2–2
D
29 Mar
@ Podbeskidzie
1–4
L
18 Mar
vs Stal Stalowa Wola
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Warta Poznań – last 6
DWDWWD
10 May
vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0–0
D
3 May
@ Hutnik Kraków
1–0
W
15 Apr
vs Śląsk Wrocław II
1–1
D
11 Apr
@ Stal Stalowa Wola
1–0
W
4 Apr
@ Sokół Kleczew
3–1
W
22 Mar
@ Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kalisz and Warta Poznań.
What is the prediction for Kalisz vs Warta Poznań?
Our pick is Warta Poznań or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Kalisz vs Warta Poznań?
On our numbers Kalisz have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Warta Poznań 61%.
How many goals will there be in Kalisz vs Warta Poznań?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kalisz vs Warta Poznań?
Our predicted score is Kalisz 0–1 Warta Poznań, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Kalisz vs Warta Poznań?
Kalisz vs Warta Poznań (II Liga East) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sandecja Nowy Sącz1
Olimpia Grudziądz3
Hutnik Kraków1
Podhale Nowy Targ0
Świt Skolwin4
Śląsk Wrocław II3