Value bet: Verl to win @ 2.45 – our chance 45% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVerl to win ✗45% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗70% · @1.30
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗70% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.87
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Verl preview and prediction
The match
Rot-Weiß Essen host Verl in the 3. Liga on Saturday 9 May, with kick-off at 13:00 (WAT) at Stadion an der Hafenstrasse. Rot-Weiß Essen are 3rd with 27 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Verl sit 17th on 12 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Rot-Weiß Essen's last 4: LWWL Most recently they lost to Energie Cottbus 3–5 away. They average 1.8 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Verl's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Havelse 4–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 1.7 for Rot-Weiß Essen and 1.9 for Verl. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score in 70% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Verl to win at 2.45 – 45% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Rot-Weiß Essen 1–2 Verl. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Rot-Weiß Essen36%fair 2.81 · @2.45
Draw19%fair 5.26 · @3.90
Verl45%fair 2.20 · @2.45
3.63Expected goals
1.69Rot-Weiß Essen xG
1.94Verl xG
70%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
1–28%
2–17%
2–27%
1–35%
0–15%
From our goals model: Rot-Weiß Essen 1.7 – 1.9 Verl expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Verl to win✗
45%
2.20
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.23
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
70%
1.43
1.30
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
86%
1.16
1.11
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.85
Half-time result
Verl ahead at half-time✗
35%
2.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Verl / FT Verl✗
27%
3.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.87
–
Form
Rot-Weiß Essen – last 4
LWWL
19 Apr
@ Energie Cottbus
3–5
L
7 Apr
@ FC Schweinfurt 05
3–1
W
4 Mar
vs Waldhof Mannheim
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ VfL Osnabrück
0–3
L
1.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Verl – last 6
WLWWLL
2 May
vs Havelse
4–0
W
5 Apr
@ SSV Ulm 1846
0–1
L
15 Mar
vs FC Schweinfurt 05
4–0
W
8 Mar
@ FC Ingolstadt 04
2–1
W
3 Mar
vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
1–2
L
21 Feb
@ Alemannia Aachen
1–3
L
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rot-Weiß Essen and Verl.
What is the prediction for Rot-Weiß Essen vs Verl?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Rot-Weiß Essen vs Verl?
On our numbers Rot-Weiß Essen have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Verl 45%.
How many goals will there be in Rot-Weiß Essen vs Verl?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rot-Weiß Essen vs Verl?
Our predicted score is Rot-Weiß Essen 1–2 Verl, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Rot-Weiß Essen vs Verl?
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Verl (3. Liga) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion an der Hafenstrasse.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Energie Cottbus2
TSV 1860 München1
VfL Osnabrück1
SSV Ulm 18461