Value bet: UNA Strassen to win @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUNA Strassen to win ✓60% · @1.80
Double chanceUNA Strassen or draw ✓84% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.11
UNA Strassen vs Progres Niederkorn preview and prediction
The match
Progres Niederkorn travel to face UNA Strassen in the National Division on Sunday 8 March (16:00 WAT). UNA Strassen are 1st with 34 points from 12 games (top of the table), while Progres Niederkorn sit 6th on 22 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
UNA Strassen's last 4: DLWD Most recently they drew with FC Differdange 03 1–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Progres Niederkorn's last 4: WWLD Most recently they beat Wiltz 1–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Progres Niederkorn arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.9 for UNA Strassen and 0.9 for Progres Niederkorn. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: UNA Strassen 60%, draw 24%, Progres Niederkorn 16%.
Safer route: UNA Strassen or draw (84%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.73.
Value angle: UNA Strassen to win at 1.80 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: UNA Strassen 2–0 Progres Niederkorn. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UNA Strassen60%fair 1.66 · @1.80
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.40
Progres Niederkorn16%fair 6.19 · @3.95
2.88Expected goals
1.95UNA Strassen xG
0.93Progres Niederkorn xG
59%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: UNA Strassen 1.9 – 0.9 Progres Niederkorn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
UNA Strassen to win✓
60%
1.66
1.80 ▲
Double chance
UNA Strassen or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.30
Half-time result
UNA Strassen ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT UNA Strassen / FT UNA Strassen✗
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.11
–
Form
UNA Strassen – last 4
DLWD
4 Mar
@ FC Differdange 03
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ US Hostert
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Union Titus Petange
3–0
W
15 Feb
vs Victoria Rosport
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Progres Niederkorn – last 4
WWLD
4 Mar
@ Wiltz
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Union Titus Petange
4–1
W
22 Feb
@ Victoria Rosport
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Swift Hesperange
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UNA Strassen and Progres Niederkorn.
What is the prediction for UNA Strassen vs Progres Niederkorn?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win UNA Strassen vs Progres Niederkorn?
On our numbers UNA Strassen have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Progres Niederkorn 16%.
How many goals will there be in UNA Strassen vs Progres Niederkorn?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UNA Strassen vs Progres Niederkorn?
Our predicted score is UNA Strassen 2–0 Progres Niederkorn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is UNA Strassen vs Progres Niederkorn?
UNA Strassen vs Progres Niederkorn (National Division) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Jeunesse Canach1
Union Titus Petange1