Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid prediction & analysis
60%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
2
Value bet: Atletico Madrid to win @ 2.58 – our chance 42% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Madrid to win ✗42% · @2.58
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.42
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.41
Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Madrid travel to Estadio de la Ceramica in the La Liga on Sunday 24 May (20:00 WAT) to face Villarreal. Villarreal are 8th with 15 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Atletico Madrid sit 3rd on 28 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Villarreal's last 5: LLDDL Most recently they lost to Rayo Vallecano 0–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Atletico Madrid's last 5: WWLDL Most recently they beat Girona 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.5 for Villarreal and 1.6 for Atletico Madrid. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 63%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Villarreal 36%, draw 22%, Atletico Madrid 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.42.
Value angle: Atletico Madrid to win at 2.58 – 42% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 60% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Villarreal 1–1 Atletico Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Villarreal36%fair 2.79 · @2.45
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.65
Atletico Madrid42%fair 2.39 · @2.58
3.05Expected goals
1.46Villarreal xG
1.60Atletico Madrid xG
63%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Villarreal 1.5 – 1.6 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Madrid to win✗
42%
2.39
2.58 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.42
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
1.65
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.55
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Madrid / FT Atletico Madrid✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.41
–
Form
Villarreal – last 6
LLDDLW
17 May
@ Rayo Vallecano
0–2
L
13 May
vs Sevilla
2–3
L
10 May
@ Mallorca
1–1
D
23 Apr
@ Oviedo
1–1
D
6 Apr
@ Girona
0–1
L
20 Mar
vs Real Sociedad
3–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
WWLDLL
17 May
vs Girona
1–0
W
12 May
@ Osasuna
2–1
W
5 May
@ Arsenal
0–1
L
29 Apr
vs Arsenal
1–1
D
22 Apr
@ Elche
2–3
L
14 Apr
vs Barcelona
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Villarreal and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Villarreal have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atletico Madrid 42%.
How many goals will there be in Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Villarreal 1–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?
Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la Ceramica.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
