Osasuna host Atletico Madrid in the La Liga on Tuesday 12 May, with kick-off at 20:30 (WAT) at Estadio El Sadar. Osasuna are 16th with 12 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Atletico Madrid sit 3rd on 28 points (in the top four). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Osasuna's last 5: LLDDL Most recently they lost to Levante 2–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Atletico Madrid's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Arsenal 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Osasuna and 1.4 for Atletico Madrid. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Osasuna 38%, draw 23%, Atletico Madrid 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Osasuna 1–1 Atletico Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Osasuna38%fair 2.60 · @2.42
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.45
Atletico Madrid39%fair 2.58 · @2.70
2.70Expected goals
1.34Osasuna xG
1.35Atletico Madrid xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Osasuna 1.3 – 1.4 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Madrid to win✓
39%
2.58
2.70
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.65
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Madrid / FT Atletico Madrid✓
22%
4.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
8%
12.07
–
Form
Osasuna – last 6
LLDDLD
8 May
@ Levante
2–3
L
21 Apr
@ Athletic Club
0–1
L
12 Apr
vs Real Betis
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Alaves
2–2
D
1 Mar
@ Valencia
0–1
L
13 Feb
@ Elche
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
LDLLWL
5 May
@ Arsenal
0–1
L
29 Apr
vs Arsenal
1–1
D
22 Apr
@ Elche
2–3
L
14 Apr
vs Barcelona
1–2
L
8 Apr
@ Barcelona
2–0
W
18 Mar
@ Tottenham
2–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Osasuna have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Atletico Madrid 39%.
How many goals will there be in Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Osasuna 1–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Sadar.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
