Alaves host Villarreal in the La Liga on Friday 13 March, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Mendizorrotza. Alaves are 12th with 13 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Villarreal sit 8th on 15 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Villarreal's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Elche 2–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.1 for Alaves and 1.5 for Villarreal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Alaves 1–1 Villarreal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alaves30%fair 3.29 · @3.20
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.35
Villarreal48%fair 2.09 · @2.20
2.62Expected goals
1.12Alaves xG
1.50Villarreal xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Alaves 1.1 – 1.5 Villarreal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Villarreal to win✗
48%
2.09
2.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Villarreal / FT Villarreal✗
27%
3.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.91
–
Form
Alaves – last 2
LD
27 Feb
@ Levante
0–2
L
23 Feb
vs Girona
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Villarreal – last 3
WWW
8 Mar
vs Elche
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Valencia
2–1
W
18 Feb
@ Levante
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alaves and Villarreal.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Alaves vs Villarreal?
On our numbers Alaves have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Villarreal 48%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Villarreal?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our predicted score is Alaves 1–1 Villarreal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Alaves vs Villarreal?
Alaves vs Villarreal (La Liga) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
