Celta Vigo host Real Madrid in the La Liga on Friday 6 March, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos. Celta Vigo are 11th with 13 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Real Madrid sit 2nd on 30 points (in the top four). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Celta Vigo's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat PAOK 1–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Real Madrid's last 3: LWW Most recently they lost to Getafe 0–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Celta Vigo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.2 for Celta Vigo and 1.5 for Real Madrid. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Celta Vigo 32%, draw 21%, Real Madrid 48%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Celta Vigo 1–1 Real Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Celta Vigo32%fair 3.17 · @3.05
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.45
Real Madrid48%fair 2.10 · @2.22
2.74Expected goals
1.20Celta Vigo xG
1.55Real Madrid xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Celta Vigo 1.2 – 1.5 Real Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid to win✓
48%
2.10
2.22 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid✗
27%
3.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
10.84
–
Form
Celta Vigo – last 3
WWW
26 Feb
vs PAOK
1–0
W
22 Feb
vs Mallorca
2–0
W
19 Feb
@ PAOK
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Real Madrid – last 3
LWW
2 Mar
vs Getafe
0–1
L
25 Feb
vs Benfica
2–1
W
17 Feb
@ Benfica
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celta Vigo and Real Madrid.
What is the prediction for Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?
On our numbers Celta Vigo have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Real Madrid 48%.
How many goals will there be in Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?
Our predicted score is Celta Vigo 1–1 Real Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?
Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
