Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Sturm Graz to win @ 1.90 – our chance 60% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSturm Graz to win ✓60% · @1.90
Double chanceSturm Graz or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.19
Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz preview and prediction
The match
Sturm Graz host FC BW Linz in the Bundesliga on Sunday 22 February, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Merkur-Arena.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Sturm Graz and 0.8 for FC BW Linz. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 50%.
Value angle: Sturm Graz to win at 1.90 – 60% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sturm Graz or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sturm Graz 1–0 FC BW Linz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sturm Graz60%fair 1.68 · @1.90
Draw26%fair 3.79 · @3.25
FC BW Linz14%fair 7.13 · @4.20
2.55Expected goals
1.78Sturm Graz xG
0.77FC BW Linz xG
50%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Sturm Graz 1.8 – 0.8 FC BW Linz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sturm Graz to win✓
60%
1.68
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Sturm Graz or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Sturm Graz ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sturm Graz / FT Sturm Graz✓
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
14%
7.19
–
Form
Sturm Graz
No recent results on record.
FC BW Linz – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Wolfsberger AC
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz.
What is the prediction for Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz?
Our pick is Sturm Graz or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz?
On our numbers Sturm Graz have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 26% and FC BW Linz 14%.
How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz?
Our predicted score is Sturm Graz 1–0 FC BW Linz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz?
Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Merkur-Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
