Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Bastia to win @ 1.91 – our chance 63% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBastia to win ✗63% · @1.91
Double chanceBastia or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.20
Bastia vs Amiens preview and prediction
The match
The Ligue 2 sees Bastia take on Amiens on Friday 3 April, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Stade Armand Cesari.
Form guide
Bastia's last 5: DLDLD Most recently they drew with Rodez 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Amiens's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Le Mans 3–4 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Bastia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.7 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Bastia and 0.7 for Amiens. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bastia 63%, draw 21%, Amiens 15%.
Safer route: Bastia or draw (85%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Bastia to win at 1.91 – 63% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Bastia or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bastia 1–0 Amiens. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bastia63%fair 1.58 · @1.91
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.40
Amiens15%fair 6.57 · @3.60
2.35Expected goals
1.69Bastia xG
0.66Amiens xG
49%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Bastia 1.7 – 0.7 Amiens expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bastia to win✗
63%
1.58
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Bastia or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bastia / FT Bastia✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.20
–
Form
Bastia – last 6
DLDLDD
20 Mar
@ Rodez
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Boulogne
0–1
L
6 Mar
@ PAU
2–2
D
27 Feb
vs Annecy
0–2
L
20 Feb
@ Dunkerque
1–1
D
16 Feb
vs Estac Troyes
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Amiens – last 6
LLLLDL
20 Mar
vs Le Mans
3–4
L
13 Mar
@ Guingamp
0–1
L
6 Mar
@ Boulogne
2–4
L
2 Mar
vs Estac Troyes
0–2
L
21 Feb
@ Reims
0–0
D
13 Feb
vs Dunkerque
1–4
L
1.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bastia and Amiens.
Our pick is Bastia or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bastia vs Amiens?
On our numbers Bastia have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Amiens 15%.
How many goals will there be in Bastia vs Amiens?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bastia vs Amiens?
Our predicted score is Bastia 1–0 Amiens, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Bastia vs Amiens?
Bastia vs Amiens (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Armand Cesari.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Annecy1
Guingamp0
RED Star FC 930
Laval0
Dunkerque1
Rodez1
Grenoble2
Clermont Foot2