Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Velež to win @ 1.70 – our chance 62% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVelež to win ✓62% · @1.70
Double chanceVelež or draw ✓84% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓18% · fair 5.45
Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina preview and prediction
The match
The Premijer Liga sees Velež take on Radnik Bijeljina on Friday 1 May, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Stadion Rodeni. Velež are 7th with 12 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Radnik Bijeljina sit 9th on 11 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Velež's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Siroki Brijeg 3–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Radnik Bijeljina's last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with Posušje 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Velež arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Velež and 0.6 for Radnik Bijeljina. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Value angle: Velež to win at 1.70 – 62% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 81% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Velež 1–0 Radnik Bijeljina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Velež62%fair 1.60 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.20
Radnik Bijeljina16%fair 6.17 · @5.00
2.12Expected goals
1.53Velež xG
0.59Radnik Bijeljina xG
51%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Velež 1.5 – 0.6 Radnik Bijeljina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Velež to win✓
62%
1.60
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Velež or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.05
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Velež / FT Velež✓
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
18%
5.45
–
Form
Velež – last 6
WWWLWW
21 Apr
vs Siroki Brijeg
3–0
W
15 Apr
@ Sloga Doboj
3–0
W
8 Apr
vs Sloga Doboj
3–1
W
3 Apr
vs Zrinjski
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Rudar Prijedor
2–1
W
11 Mar
vs FK Sarajevo
4–1
W
2.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Radnik Bijeljina – last 6
DLDWWL
22 Apr
@ Posušje
1–1
D
15 Apr
@ Zrinjski
0–2
L
8 Apr
vs Zrinjski
0–0
D
4 Apr
vs Siroki Brijeg
2–0
W
17 Mar
vs Laktaši
4–0
W
8 Mar
@ Zrinjski
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Velež and Radnik Bijeljina.
What is the prediction for Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina?
On our numbers Velež have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Radnik Bijeljina 16%.
How many goals will there be in Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina?
Our predicted score is Velež 1–0 Radnik Bijeljina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina?
Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Rodeni.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
