Value bet: FC St. Pauli to win @ 3.60 – our chance 32% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUnion Berlin to win ✗46% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.62
Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli preview and prediction
The match
FC St. Pauli travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei in the Bundesliga on Sunday 5 April (14:30 WAT) to face Union Berlin.
Form guide
Union Berlin's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat SC Freiburg 1–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FC St. Pauli's last 4: LLDW Most recently they lost to SC Freiburg 1–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Union Berlin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.4 for Union Berlin and 1.1 for FC St. Pauli. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Union Berlin 46%, draw 22%, FC St. Pauli 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.00.
Value angle: FC St. Pauli to win at 3.60 – 32% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Union Berlin 1–1 FC St. Pauli. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Union Berlin46%fair 2.17 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.15
FC St. Pauli32%fair 3.17 · @3.60
2.49Expected goals
1.40Union Berlin xG
1.09FC St. Pauli xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Union Berlin 1.4 – 1.1 FC St. Pauli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Union Berlin to win✗
46%
2.17
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Union Berlin / FT Union Berlin✗
26%
3.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.62
–
Form
Union Berlin – last 3
WLW
15 Mar
@ SC Freiburg
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Werder Bremen
1–4
L
21 Feb
vs Bayer Leverkusen
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
FC St. Pauli – last 4
LLDW
22 Mar
vs SC Freiburg
1–2
L
13 Mar
@ Borussia Mönchengladbach
0–2
L
8 Mar
vs Eintracht Frankfurt
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Werder Bremen
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli.
What is the prediction for Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
On our numbers Union Berlin have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and FC St. Pauli 32%.
How many goals will there be in Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
Our predicted score is Union Berlin 1–1 FC St. Pauli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
