Value bet: Union Berlin to win @ 3.40 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSC Freiburg to win ✗44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.13
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin preview and prediction
The match
The Bundesliga sees SC Freiburg take on Union Berlin on Sunday 15 March, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at Europa-Park-Stadion. SC Freiburg are 3rd with 19 points from 9 games (in the top four), while Union Berlin sit 16th on 7 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
SC Freiburg's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Genk 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.6 for SC Freiburg and 1.4 for Union Berlin. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: SC Freiburg 44%, draw 22%, Union Berlin 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Union Berlin to win at 3.40 – 34% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.78, so there is value in it. Predicted score: SC Freiburg 1–1 Union Berlin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
SC Freiburg44%fair 2.28 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.10
Union Berlin34%fair 2.96 · @3.40
3.02Expected goals
1.62SC Freiburg xG
1.40Union Berlin xG
56%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–17%
2–06%
From our goals model: SC Freiburg 1.6 – 1.4 Union Berlin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
SC Freiburg to win✗
44%
2.28
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.24
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.54
–
Half-time / full-time
HT SC Freiburg / FT SC Freiburg✗
26%
3.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.13
–
Form
SC Freiburg – last 3
LLW
12 Mar
@ Genk
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Eintracht Frankfurt
0–2
L
22 Feb
vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
2–1
W
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Union Berlin – last 2
LW
8 Mar
vs Werder Bremen
1–4
L
21 Feb
vs Bayer Leverkusen
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin.
What is the prediction for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
On our numbers SC Freiburg have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Union Berlin 34%.
How many goals will there be in SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our predicted score is SC Freiburg 1–1 Union Berlin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Europa-Park-Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
