Value bet: FC St. Pauli to win @ 2.70 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC St. Pauli to win ✓40% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.77
FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen preview and prediction
The match
The Bundesliga sees FC St. Pauli take on Werder Bremen on Sunday 22 February, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at Millerntor-Stadion.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for FC St. Pauli and 1.2 for Werder Bremen. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC St. Pauli 40%, draw 25%, Werder Bremen 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.91.
Value angle: FC St. Pauli to win at 2.70 – 40% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: FC St. Pauli 1–1 Werder Bremen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC St. Pauli40%fair 2.50 · @2.70
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.05
Werder Bremen34%fair 2.90 · @2.70
2.58Expected goals
1.35FC St. Pauli xG
1.23Werder Bremen xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: FC St. Pauli 1.3 – 1.2 Werder Bremen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC St. Pauli to win✓
40%
2.50
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC St. Pauli / FT FC St. Pauli✗
23%
4.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.77
–
Form
FC St. Pauli
No recent results on record.
Werder Bremen
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen.
What is the prediction for FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
On our numbers FC St. Pauli have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Werder Bremen 34%.
How many goals will there be in FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
Our predicted score is FC St. Pauli 1–1 Werder Bremen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Millerntor-Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
1. FC Heidenheim3