Value bet: Hamburger SV to win @ 3.75 – our chance 31% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFSV Mainz 05 to win ✗47% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.68
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.02
FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV preview and prediction
The match
The Bundesliga sees FSV Mainz 05 take on Hamburger SV on Friday 20 February, kicking off at 20:30 (WAT) at Mewa Arena. FSV Mainz 05 are 12th with 10 points from 9 games (in the bottom half), while Hamburger SV sit 11th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.5 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.2 for Hamburger SV. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 61%.
Value angle: Hamburger SV to win at 3.75 – 31% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.26. Predicted score: FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Hamburger SV. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FSV Mainz 0547%fair 2.13 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.40
Hamburger SV31%fair 3.20 · @3.75
2.74Expected goals
1.54FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.20Hamburger SV xG
61%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: FSV Mainz 05 1.5 – 1.2 Hamburger SV expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FSV Mainz 05 to win✗
47%
2.13
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.68
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.26
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.78
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FSV Mainz 05 / FT FSV Mainz 05✗
27%
3.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.02
–
Form
FSV Mainz 05 – last 1
L
13 Feb
@ Borussia Dortmund
0–4
L
0.0Scored / game
4.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Hamburger SV
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FSV Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV.
What is the prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
On our numbers FSV Mainz 05 have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Hamburger SV 31%.
How many goals will there be in FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
Our predicted score is FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Hamburger SV, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV (Bundesliga) kicks off on Friday 20 February 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Mewa Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
