Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLens to win ✓63% · @1.51
Double chanceLens or draw ✓85% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.13
Lens vs Toulouse preview and prediction
The match
Toulouse travel to Stade Bollaert-Delelis in the Ligue 1 on Friday 17 April (19:45 WAT) to face Lens. Lens are 11th with 13 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Toulouse sit 12th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lens's last 4: WWDL Most recently they beat Angers 5–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game.
Toulouse's last 3: LWL Most recently they lost to Paris Saint Germain 1–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Lens arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Lens and 0.9 for Toulouse. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lens 63%, draw 22%, Toulouse 15%.
Safer route: Lens or draw (85%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Lens 2–0 Toulouse. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lens63%fair 1.58 · @1.51
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @4.30
Toulouse15%fair 6.71 · @5.70
2.88Expected goals
2.01Lens xG
0.87Toulouse xG
55%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Lens 2.0 – 0.9 Toulouse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lens to win✓
63%
1.58
1.51
Double chance
Lens or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.45
Half-time result
Lens ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lens / FT Lens✗
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.13
–
Form
Lens – last 4
WWDL
20 Mar
vs Angers
5–1
W
8 Mar
vs Metz
3–0
W
27 Feb
@ Strasbourg
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Monaco
2–3
L
2.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Toulouse – last 3
LWL
3 Apr
@ Paris Saint Germain
1–3
L
15 Mar
@ Metz
4–3
W
15 Feb
@ Le Havre
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lens and Toulouse.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lens vs Toulouse?
On our numbers Lens have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Toulouse 15%.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Toulouse?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lens vs Toulouse?
Our predicted score is Lens 2–0 Toulouse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Lens vs Toulouse?
Lens vs Toulouse (Ligue 1) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
