Value bet: Derby to win @ 3.40 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPortsmouth to win ✗40% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.17
Portsmouth vs Derby preview and prediction
The match
The Championship sees Portsmouth take on Derby on Monday 16 March, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT) at Fratton Park. Portsmouth are 11th with 22 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Derby sit 23rd on 10 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Portsmouth's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Swansea 1–2 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Derby's last 4: LWLL Most recently they lost to Millwall 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Portsmouth and 1.2 for Derby. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Portsmouth 40%, draw 24%, Derby 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Derby to win at 3.40 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Portsmouth 1–1 Derby. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Portsmouth40%fair 2.49 · @2.18
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.15
Derby35%fair 2.82 · @3.40
2.46Expected goals
1.28Portsmouth xG
1.18Derby xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Portsmouth 1.3 – 1.2 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Portsmouth to win✗
40%
2.49
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Portsmouth / FT Portsmouth✗
22%
4.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.17
–
Form
Portsmouth – last 6
LDLLWW
10 Mar
vs Swansea
1–2
L
7 Mar
@ Blackburn
1–1
D
28 Feb
vs Hull City
0–1
L
24 Feb
@ Wrexham
1–2
L
21 Feb
@ Millwall
3–1
W
17 Feb
@ Charlton
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Derby – last 4
LWLL
10 Mar
@ Millwall
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Blackburn
3–1
W
24 Feb
@ Hull City
2–4
L
21 Feb
@ Watford
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Portsmouth and Derby.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Portsmouth vs Derby?
On our numbers Portsmouth have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Derby 35%.
How many goals will there be in Portsmouth vs Derby?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our predicted score is Portsmouth 1–1 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Portsmouth vs Derby?
Portsmouth vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Monday 16 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Fratton Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
