Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Southampton to win @ 1.91 – our chance 63% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSouthampton to win ✓63% · @1.91
Double chanceSouthampton or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.16
Southampton vs Norwich preview and prediction
The match
Southampton host Norwich in the Championship on Wednesday 18 March, with kick-off at 20:45 (WAT) at St. Mary's Stadium. Southampton are 7th with 24 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Norwich sit 12th on 21 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Southampton's last 4: DWWD Most recently they drew with West Brom 1–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Norwich's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Sheffield Utd 2–1 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Southampton and 0.9 for Norwich. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 61%.
Value angle: Southampton to win at 1.91 – 63% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Southampton or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Southampton 1–0 Norwich. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Southampton63%fair 1.58 · @1.91
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.60
Norwich16%fair 6.37 · @3.75
2.82Expected goals
1.96Southampton xG
0.86Norwich xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: Southampton 2.0 – 0.9 Norwich expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Southampton to win✓
63%
1.58
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Southampton or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.42
Half-time result
Southampton ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Southampton / FT Southampton✓
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.16
–
Form
Southampton – last 4
DWWD
11 Mar
@ West Brom
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Fulham
1–0
W
24 Feb
vs QPR
5–0
W
21 Feb
vs Charlton
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Norwich – last 5
WLWWL
11 Mar
vs Sheffield Utd
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Leeds
0–3
L
28 Feb
@ Leicester
2–0
W
25 Feb
vs Sheffield Wednesday
2–0
W
21 Feb
vs Birmingham
1–2
L
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Southampton and Norwich.
What is the prediction for Southampton vs Norwich?
Our pick is Southampton or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Southampton vs Norwich?
On our numbers Southampton have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Norwich 16%.
How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Norwich?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Norwich?
Our predicted score is Southampton 1–0 Norwich, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Southampton vs Norwich?
Southampton vs Norwich (Championship) kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at St. Mary's Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
