Birmingham vs Middlesbrough preview and prediction
The match
Birmingham host Middlesbrough in the Championship on Monday 2 March, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park. Birmingham are 1st with 29 points from 15 games (top of the table), while Middlesbrough sit 2nd on 29 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Middlesbrough's last 3: DDL Most recently they drew with Leicester 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Birmingham and 1.3 for Middlesbrough. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 60%.
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Birmingham 1–1 Middlesbrough. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Birmingham38%fair 2.66 · @2.56
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.45
Middlesbrough40%fair 2.53 · @2.56
2.64Expected goals
1.30Birmingham xG
1.34Middlesbrough xG
60%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Birmingham 1.3 – 1.3 Middlesbrough expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Middlesbrough to win✓
40%
2.53
2.56
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Middlesbrough / FT Middlesbrough✓
22%
4.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.45
–
Form
Birmingham – last 2
LW
25 Feb
@ Millwall
0–3
L
21 Feb
@ Norwich
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Middlesbrough – last 3
DDL
24 Feb
vs Leicester
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Oxford United
0–0
D
16 Feb
@ Coventry
1–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Birmingham and Middlesbrough.
What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
On our numbers Birmingham have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Middlesbrough 40%.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
Our predicted score is Birmingham 1–1 Middlesbrough, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
Birmingham vs Middlesbrough (Championship) kicks off on Monday 2 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
