Value bet: Maribor to win @ 1.89 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMaribor to win ✗58% · @1.89
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.35
Mura vs Maribor preview and prediction
The match
The 1. SNL sees Mura take on Maribor on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Mestni stadion Fazanerija. Mura are 9th with 14 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Maribor sit 2nd on 24 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Mura's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Primorje 2–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
Maribor's last 5: LDDWW Most recently they lost to Koper 1–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Maribor arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.6 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.0 for Mura and 1.8 for Maribor. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 61%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mura 23%, draw 19%, Maribor 58%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Maribor to win at 1.89 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Mura 1–1 Maribor. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mura23%fair 4.26 · @3.55
Draw19%fair 5.26 · @3.60
Maribor58%fair 1.74 · @1.89
2.82Expected goals
1.03Mura xG
1.80Maribor xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
0–111%
1–210%
0–210%
1–06%
0–06%
From our goals model: Mura 1.0 – 1.8 Maribor expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Maribor to win✗
58%
1.74
1.89 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.23
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.42
Half-time result
Maribor ahead at half-time✗
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Maribor / FT Maribor✗
34%
2.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.35
–
Form
Mura – last 5
WLLLL
10 May
@ Primorje
2–0
W
3 May
vs Koper
0–1
L
19 Apr
vs Celje
0–2
L
16 Apr
@ Aluminij
1–2
L
1 Mar
@ Koper
0–3
L
0.6Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Maribor – last 5
LDDWW
14 Apr
@ Koper
1–3
L
20 Mar
@ Aluminij
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Olimpija Ljubljana
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Bravo
2–0
W
15 Feb
@ Primorje
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mura and Maribor.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Mura vs Maribor?
On our numbers Mura have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Maribor 58%.
How many goals will there be in Mura vs Maribor?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mura vs Maribor?
Our predicted score is Mura 1–1 Maribor, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Mura vs Maribor?
Mura vs Maribor (1. SNL) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Mestni stadion Fazanerija.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
