Value bet: NK Slaven Belupo to win @ 2.72 – our chance 42% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNK Slaven Belupo to win ✗42% · @2.72
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.08
Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo preview and prediction
The match
NK Slaven Belupo travel to Stadion Aldo Drosina in the HNL on Monday 4 May (17:00 WAT) to face Istra 1961. Istra 1961 are 4th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top four), while NK Slaven Belupo sit 7th on 16 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Istra 1961's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to HNK Gorica 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
NK Slaven Belupo's last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 February 2026, finished NK Slaven Belupo 1–0 Istra 1961.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.2 for Istra 1961 and 1.4 for NK Slaven Belupo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: NK Slaven Belupo to win at 2.72 – 42% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Istra 1961 1–1 NK Slaven Belupo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Istra 196134%fair 2.96 · @2.55
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.05
NK Slaven Belupo42%fair 2.40 · @2.72
2.66Expected goals
1.24Istra 1961 xG
1.41NK Slaven Belupo xG
59%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Istra 1961 1.2 – 1.4 NK Slaven Belupo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo?
On our numbers Istra 1961 have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and NK Slaven Belupo 42%.
How many goals will there be in Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo?
Our predicted score is Istra 1961 1–1 NK Slaven Belupo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo?
Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo (HNL) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Aldo Drosina.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
