Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: HNK Gorica to win @ 1.94 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultHNK Gorica to win ✓62% · @1.94
Double chanceHNK Gorica or draw ✓86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.24
HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961 preview and prediction
The match
The HNL sees HNK Gorica take on Istra 1961 on Monday 27 April, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Gradski stadion Velika Gorica. HNK Gorica are 10th with 7 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Istra 1961 sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
HNK Gorica's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Vukovar 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Istra 1961's last 5: LLWWL Most recently they lost to Dinamo Zagreb 0–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
HNK Gorica arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 February 2026, finished Istra 1961 0–2 HNK Gorica.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for HNK Gorica and 0.8 for Istra 1961. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: HNK Gorica to win at 1.94 – 62% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was HNK Gorica or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: HNK Gorica 1–0 Istra 1961. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
HNK Gorica62%fair 1.61 · @1.94
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.25
Istra 196114%fair 7.33 · @3.75
2.59Expected goals
1.83HNK Gorica xG
0.75Istra 1961 xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: HNK Gorica 1.8 – 0.8 Istra 1961 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961?
Our pick is HNK Gorica or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961?
On our numbers HNK Gorica have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Istra 1961 14%.
How many goals will there be in HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961?
Our predicted score is HNK Gorica 1–0 Istra 1961, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961?
HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961 (HNL) kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Gradski stadion Velika Gorica.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
