Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.55Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultHNK Rijeka to win ✗62% · @1.55
Double chanceHNK Rijeka or draw ✗86% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.05
HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 preview and prediction
The match
Istra 1961 travel to Stadion HNK Rijeka in the HNL on Sunday 15 March (17:45 WAT) to face HNK Rijeka. HNK Rijeka are 6th with 18 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Istra 1961 sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
HNK Rijeka's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to Strasbourg 1–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Istra 1961's last 3: LLL Most recently they lost to NK Osijek 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.0 per game.
HNK Rijeka arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for HNK Rijeka and 0.7 for Istra 1961. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: HNK Rijeka 62%, draw 25%, Istra 1961 14%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 54% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was HNK Rijeka to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: HNK Rijeka 1–0 Istra 1961. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
HNK Rijeka62%fair 1.62 · @1.55
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.60
Istra 196114%fair 7.21 · @6.00
2.54Expected goals
1.80HNK Rijeka xG
0.74Istra 1961 xG
54%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: HNK Rijeka 1.8 – 0.7 Istra 1961 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
HNK Rijeka to win✗
62%
1.62
1.55
Double chance
HNK Rijeka or draw✗
86%
1.16
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.87
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.87
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Half-time result
HNK Rijeka ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT HNK Rijeka / FT HNK Rijeka✗
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.05
–
Form
HNK Rijeka – last 6
LWWWLW
12 Mar
vs Strasbourg
1–2
L
8 Mar
@ Vukovar
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2–0
W
26 Feb
vs Omonia Nicosia
3–1
W
22 Feb
@ HNK Hajduk Split
0–1
L
19 Feb
@ Omonia Nicosia
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Istra 1961 – last 3
LLL
6 Mar
vs NK Osijek
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ NK Slaven Belupo
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs HNK Gorica
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between HNK Rijeka and Istra 1961.
What is the prediction for HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961?
Our pick is HNK Rijeka to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961?
On our numbers HNK Rijeka have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Istra 1961 14%.
How many goals will there be in HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961?
Our predicted score is HNK Rijeka 1–0 Istra 1961, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961?
HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 (HNL) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion HNK Rijeka.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
