Value bet: HNK Gorica to win @ 3.40 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIstra 1961 to win ✗44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.31
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.35
Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica preview and prediction
The match
Istra 1961 host HNK Gorica in the HNL on Saturday 21 February, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Stadion Aldo Drosina. Istra 1961 are 4th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top four), while HNK Gorica sit 10th on 7 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Istra 1961 and 1.2 for HNK Gorica. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: HNK Gorica to win at 3.40 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.23. Predicted score: Istra 1961 1–1 HNK Gorica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Istra 196144%fair 2.30 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.30
HNK Gorica35%fair 2.89 · @3.40
2.55Expected goals
1.37Istra 1961 xG
1.18HNK Gorica xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Istra 1961 1.4 – 1.2 HNK Gorica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Istra 1961 to win✗
44%
2.30
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.31
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.90 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.23
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Istra 1961 / FT Istra 1961✗
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.35
–
Form
Istra 1961
No recent results on record.
HNK Gorica – last 1
D
15 Feb
vs Vukovar
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Istra 1961 and HNK Gorica.
What is the prediction for Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
On our numbers Istra 1961 have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and HNK Gorica 35%.
How many goals will there be in Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
Our predicted score is Istra 1961 1–1 HNK Gorica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica (HNL) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Aldo Drosina.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
