Value bet: Morton to win @ 3.05 – our chance 35% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultArbroath to win ✗41% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.69
Morton vs Arbroath preview and prediction
The match
Morton host Arbroath in the Championship on Saturday 28 March, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Cappielow Park. Morton are 9th with 13 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Arbroath sit 8th on 14 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Morton's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Partick 1–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Morton and 1.2 for Arbroath. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Morton 35%, draw 24%, Arbroath 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Morton to win at 3.05 – 35% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Morton 1–1 Arbroath. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Morton35%fair 2.84 · @3.05
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.15
Arbroath41%fair 2.47 · @2.25
2.38Expected goals
1.14Morton xG
1.25Arbroath xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Morton 1.1 – 1.2 Arbroath expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arbroath to win✗
41%
2.47
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arbroath / FT Arbroath✗
22%
4.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.69
–
Form
Morton – last 3
LLW
13 Mar
vs Partick
1–2
L
21 Feb
@ Queen's Park
2–3
L
17 Feb
vs Dunfermline
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Arbroath – last 2
DW
3 Mar
vs Ayr Utd
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Dunfermline
4–2
W
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Morton and Arbroath.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Morton vs Arbroath?
On our numbers Morton have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Arbroath 41%.
How many goals will there be in Morton vs Arbroath?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Morton vs Arbroath?
Our predicted score is Morton 1–1 Arbroath, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Morton vs Arbroath?
Morton vs Arbroath (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Cappielow Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
ST Johnstone1