Value bet: Dunfermline to win @ 3.15 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAyr Utd to win ✗40% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.27
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline preview and prediction
The match
Dunfermline travel to Somerset Park in the Championship on Tuesday 7 April (19:45 WAT) to face Ayr Utd. Ayr Utd are 7th with 15 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Dunfermline sit 3rd on 25 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Ayr Utd's last 5: LLDLD Most recently they lost to Raith Rovers 0–3 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
Dunfermline's last 4: WDLL Most recently they beat Ross County 3–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Dunfermline arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Ayr Utd and 1.2 for Dunfermline. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Dunfermline to win at 3.15 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Ayr Utd 1–1 Dunfermline. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ayr Utd40%fair 2.51 · @2.18
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.20
Dunfermline36%fair 2.77 · @3.15
2.47Expected goals
1.27Ayr Utd xG
1.20Dunfermline xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Ayr Utd 1.3 – 1.2 Dunfermline expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ayr Utd to win✗
40%
2.51
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ayr Utd / FT Ayr Utd✗
22%
4.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.27
–
Form
Ayr Utd – last 5
LLDLD
27 Mar
@ Raith Rovers
0–3
L
10 Mar
vs Queen's Park
1–2
L
3 Mar
@ Arbroath
1–1
D
24 Feb
vs Inverness CT
1–2
L
21 Feb
vs Ross County
0–0
D
0.6Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Dunfermline – last 4
WDLL
3 Mar
vs Ross County
3–0
W
24 Feb
vs Partick
2–2
D
21 Feb
@ Arbroath
2–4
L
17 Feb
@ Morton
0–2
L
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ayr Utd and Dunfermline.
What is the prediction for Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline?
On our numbers Ayr Utd have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Dunfermline 36%.
How many goals will there be in Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline?
Our predicted score is Ayr Utd 1–1 Dunfermline, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline?
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 7 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Somerset Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
