The Championship sees Arbroath take on Ayr Utd on Tuesday 3 March, kicking off at 20:45 (WAT) at Gayfield Park. Arbroath are 8th with 14 points from 14 games (in the bottom three), while Ayr Utd sit 7th on 15 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Arbroath and 1.2 for Ayr Utd. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arbroath 38%, draw 27%, Ayr Utd 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Arbroath 1–1 Ayr Utd. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arbroath38%fair 2.61 · @2.25
Draw27%fair 3.72 · @3.30
Ayr Utd35%fair 2.88 · @2.94
2.51Expected goals
1.30Arbroath xG
1.22Ayr Utd xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Arbroath 1.3 – 1.2 Ayr Utd expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Arbroath
Ayr Utd
Attack vs Championship average
-19%
-9%
Goals conceded vs average
+28%
+28%
Our expected goals here
1.31
1.23
Our own ratings from every Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arbroath to win✗
38%
2.61
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arbroath / FT Arbroath✗
22%
4.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.53
–
Form
Arbroath – last 1
W
21 Feb
vs Dunfermline
4–2
W
4.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Ayr Utd – last 2
LD
24 Feb
vs Inverness CT
1–2
L
21 Feb
vs Ross County
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arbroath and Ayr Utd.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?
On our numbers Arbroath have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Ayr Utd 35%.
How many goals will there be in Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?
Our predicted score is Arbroath 1–1 Ayr Utd, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?
Arbroath vs Ayr Utd (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Gayfield Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Ross County0