Value bet: AZ Alkmaar to win @ 2.68 – our chance 41% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultAZ Alkmaar to win41% · @2.68
Double chanceEither team to win79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score68% · @1.38
GoalsOver 1.5 goals83% · @1.13
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.74
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente preview and prediction
The match
The Eredivisie sees AZ Alkmaar take on Twente on Sunday 3 May, kicking off at 15:45 (WAT) at AFAS Stadion. AZ Alkmaar are 5th with 23 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Twente sit 4th on 24 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
AZ Alkmaar's last 5: DDLLW Most recently they drew with GO Ahead Eagles 0–0 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Twente's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat FC Volendam 2–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Twente arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.6 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.6 for Twente. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score in 68% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: AZ Alkmaar 41%, draw 21%, Twente 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (68%) at 1.38.
Value angle: AZ Alkmaar to win at 2.68 – 41% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 68% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Twente. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AZ Alkmaar41%fair 2.45 · @2.68
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.90
Twente38%fair 2.61 · @2.26
3.16Expected goals
1.61AZ Alkmaar xG
1.55Twente xG
68%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–17%
From our goals model: AZ Alkmaar 1.6 – 1.6 Twente expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AZ Alkmaar to win
41%
2.45
2.68 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
79%
1.27
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
68%
1.48
1.38
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
83%
1.21
1.13
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
63%
1.58
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
58%
1.72
1.70
Half-time result
Level at half-time
38%
2.60
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AZ Alkmaar / FT AZ Alkmaar
23%
4.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.74
–
Form
AZ Alkmaar – last 6
DDLLWW
23 Apr
@ GO Ahead Eagles
0–0
D
16 Apr
vs Shakhtar Donetsk
2–2
D
9 Apr
@ Shakhtar Donetsk
0–3
L
22 Mar
@ Groningen
0–3
L
19 Mar
@ Sparta Praha
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Heracles
4–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Twente – last 6
WLWWWD
10 Apr
vs FC Volendam
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs Utrecht
0–2
L
8 Mar
@ GO Ahead Eagles
4–1
W
1 Mar
vs Feyenoord
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs Groningen
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Telstar
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AZ Alkmaar and Twente.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
On our numbers AZ Alkmaar have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Twente 38%.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
Our predicted score is AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Twente, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
FC Volendam0
Heracles0