Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAZ Alkmaar to win ✓65% · @1.40
Double chanceAZ Alkmaar or draw ✓86% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.73
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.47
AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles preview and prediction
The match
The Eredivisie sees AZ Alkmaar take on Heracles on Sunday 15 March, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT) at AFAS Stadion.
Form guide
AZ Alkmaar's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Sparta Praha 2–1 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.4 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.1 for Heracles. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 68% and both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: AZ Alkmaar 65%, draw 21%, Heracles 14%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 62% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.62, so there is value in it. Predicted score: AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Heracles. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AZ Alkmaar65%fair 1.53 · @1.40
Draw21%fair 4.85 · @4.60
Heracles14%fair 7.11 · @6.50
3.50Expected goals
2.41AZ Alkmaar xG
1.09Heracles xG
62%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
1–18%
3–18%
1–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: AZ Alkmaar 2.4 – 1.1 Heracles expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AZ Alkmaar to win✓
65%
1.53
1.40
Double chance
AZ Alkmaar or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.73 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
AZ Alkmaar ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AZ Alkmaar / FT AZ Alkmaar✓
44%
2.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.47
–
Form
AZ Alkmaar – last 6
WWLWWL
12 Mar
vs Sparta Praha
2–1
W
4 Mar
vs Telstar
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Utrecht
0–2
L
26 Feb
vs FC Noah
4–0
W
22 Feb
vs Sparta Rotterdam
3–1
W
19 Feb
@ FC Noah
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Heracles – last 2
DL
6 Mar
vs Utrecht
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ GO Ahead Eagles
0–4
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AZ Alkmaar and Heracles.
What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
On our numbers AZ Alkmaar have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Heracles 14%.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Our predicted score is AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Heracles, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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