Value bet: Legia Warszawa to win @ 1.66 – our chance 68% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultLegia Warszawa to win68% · @1.66
Double chanceLegia Warszawa or draw89% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–213% · fair 7.75
Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa preview and prediction
The match
Nieciecza host Legia Warszawa in the Ekstraklasa on Sunday 10 May, with kick-off at 16:30 (WAT) at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
Form guide
Nieciecza's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to GKS Katowice 1–4 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.7 conceded.
Legia Warszawa's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat Widzew Łódź 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Legia Warszawa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.7 for Nieciecza and 2.1 for Legia Warszawa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nieciecza 11%, draw 21%, Legia Warszawa 68%.
Safer route: Legia Warszawa or draw (89%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Legia Warszawa to win at 1.66 – 68% on our numbers against 60% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Nieciecza 0–2 Legia Warszawa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nieciecza11%fair 9.32 · @4.65
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.95
Legia Warszawa68%fair 1.47 · @1.66
2.84Expected goals
0.74Nieciecza xG
2.10Legia Warszawa xG
59%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–213%
0–112%
1–210%
0–39%
1–19%
1–37%
From our goals model: Nieciecza 0.7 – 2.1 Legia Warszawa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Legia Warszawa to win
68%
1.47
1.66 ▲
Double chance
Legia Warszawa or draw
89%
1.12
1.18 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
56%
1.80
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
66%
1.51
1.48
Half-time result
Legia Warszawa ahead at half-time
49%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Legia Warszawa / FT Legia Warszawa
45%
2.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2
13%
7.75
–
Form
Nieciecza – last 6
LWLWLL
3 May
@ GKS Katowice
1–4
L
24 Apr
@ Zaglebie Lubin
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Wisla Plock
1–3
L
6 Apr
vs Piast Gliwice
3–2
W
22 Mar
@ Lech Poznan
1–4
L
13 Mar
vs Motor Lublin
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Legia Warszawa – last 6
WWWDDD
1 May
vs Widzew Łódź
1–0
W
17 Apr
vs Zaglebie Lubin
1–0
W
6 Apr
@ Pogon Szczecin
2–0
W
13 Mar
@ Radomiak Radom
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Jagiellonia
2–2
D
13 Feb
@ GKS Katowice
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa.
What is the prediction for Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa?
On our numbers Nieciecza have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Legia Warszawa 68%.
How many goals will there be in Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa?
Our predicted score is Nieciecza 0–2 Legia Warszawa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa?
Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
