Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
Pogon Szczecin or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Pogon Szczecin to win @ 1.90 – our chance 61% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultPogon Szczecin to win61% · @1.90
Double chancePogon Szczecin or draw85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–013% · fair 7.42
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock preview and prediction
The match
The Ekstraklasa sees Pogon Szczecin take on Wisla Plock on Sunday 3 May, kicking off at 16:30 (WAT) at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Pogon Szczecin are 4th with 24 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Wisla Plock sit 12th on 15 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Pogon Szczecin's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Piast Gliwice 2–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Wisla Plock's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Radomiak Radom 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Pogon Szczecin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Pogon Szczecin and 0.8 for Wisla Plock. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Safer route: Pogon Szczecin or draw (85%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Pogon Szczecin to win at 1.90 – 61% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Pogon Szczecin or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Wisla Plock. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pogon Szczecin61%fair 1.63 · @1.90
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.65
Wisla Plock15%fair 6.59 · @3.70
2.60Expected goals
1.82Pogon Szczecin xG
0.78Wisla Plock xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Pogon Szczecin 1.8 – 0.8 Wisla Plock expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pogon Szczecin to win
61%
1.63
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Pogon Szczecin or draw
85%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.76
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
74%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
50%
1.98
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
71%
1.41
1.38
Half-time result
Pogon Szczecin ahead at half-time
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pogon Szczecin / FT Pogon Szczecin
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
13%
7.42
–
Form
Pogon Szczecin – last 5
WLWLW
13 Apr
@ Piast Gliwice
2–0
W
6 Apr
vs Legia Warszawa
0–2
L
16 Mar
vs Korona Kielce
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Raków Częstochowa
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Arka Gdynia
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Wisla Plock – last 6
LWWLLL
26 Apr
vs Radomiak Radom
0–1
L
19 Apr
@ Nieciecza
3–1
W
10 Apr
vs Lechia Gdansk
1–0
W
4 Apr
@ GKS Katowice
0–1
L
9 Mar
vs Arka Gdynia
0–3
L
2 Mar
@ Zaglebie Lubin
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock.
What is the prediction for Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Our pick is Pogon Szczecin or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
On our numbers Pogon Szczecin have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Wisla Plock 15%.
How many goals will there be in Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Our predicted score is Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Wisla Plock, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock (Ekstraklasa) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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