Value bet: Lech Poznan to win @ 2.50 – our chance 45% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultLech Poznan to win45% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score65% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.25
Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan preview and prediction
The match
The Ekstraklasa sees Jagiellonia take on Lech Poznan on Saturday 4 April, kicking off at 19:15 (WAT) at Chorten Arena. Jagiellonia are 9th with 21 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Lech Poznan sit 1st on 32 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Jagiellonia's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat GKS Katowice 2–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Lech Poznan's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Nieciecza 4–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Lech Poznan arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.5 for Jagiellonia and 1.7 for Lech Poznan. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 65%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Jagiellonia 36%, draw 19%, Lech Poznan 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.48.
Value angle: Lech Poznan to win at 2.50 – 45% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 65% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Jagiellonia 1–1 Lech Poznan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Jagiellonia36%fair 2.78 · @2.50
Draw19%fair 5.15 · @3.75
Lech Poznan45%fair 2.24 · @2.50
3.11Expected goals
1.45Jagiellonia xG
1.66Lech Poznan xG
65%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
1–06%
2–26%
From our goals model: Jagiellonia 1.5 – 1.7 Lech Poznan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lech Poznan to win
45%
2.24
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
65%
1.53
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
81%
1.23
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
60%
1.65
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
61%
1.63
1.57
Half-time result
Level at half-time
39%
2.58
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lech Poznan / FT Lech Poznan
25%
3.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
11.25
–
Form
Jagiellonia – last 6
WLDWDL
17 Mar
vs GKS Katowice
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Lechia Gdansk
0–3
L
1 Mar
vs Legia Warszawa
2–2
D
26 Feb
@ Fiorentina
3–0
W
22 Feb
vs Radomiak Radom
1–1
D
19 Feb
vs Fiorentina
0–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Lech Poznan – last 6
WWWLLW
22 Mar
vs Nieciecza
4–1
W
19 Mar
@ Shakhtar Donetsk
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Zaglebie Lubin
1–0
W
12 Mar
vs Shakhtar Donetsk
1–3
L
4 Mar
vs Gornik Zabrze
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Raków Częstochowa
4–3
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan.
What is the prediction for Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
On our numbers Jagiellonia have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Lech Poznan 45%.
How many goals will there be in Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Our predicted score is Jagiellonia 1–1 Lech Poznan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Chorten Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
