Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Brighton to win @ 2.38 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBrighton to win ✓45% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.09
Brighton vs Chelsea preview and prediction
The match
Brighton host Chelsea in the Premier League on Tuesday 21 April, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Amex Stadium. Brighton are 2nd with 22 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Chelsea sit 5th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Brighton's last 3: LWW Most recently they lost to Arsenal 0–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Chelsea's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Paris Saint Germain 0–3 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Brighton arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.6 for Brighton and 1.3 for Chelsea. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 64%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Brighton 45%, draw 20%, Chelsea 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Brighton to win at 2.38 – 45% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Brighton 1–1 Chelsea. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Brighton45%fair 2.21 · @2.38
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @3.65
Chelsea34%fair 2.90 · @2.66
2.87Expected goals
1.55Brighton xG
1.31Chelsea xG
64%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Brighton 1.6 – 1.3 Chelsea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Brighton to win✓
45%
2.21
2.38 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.50
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Brighton / FT Brighton✓
26%
3.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.09
–
Form
Brighton – last 3
LWW
4 Mar
vs Arsenal
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Nottingham Forest
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Brentford
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Chelsea – last 6
LLWLDW
17 Mar
vs Paris Saint Germain
0–3
L
11 Mar
@ Paris Saint Germain
2–5
L
4 Mar
@ Aston Villa
4–1
W
1 Mar
@ Arsenal
1–2
L
21 Feb
vs Burnley
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Hull City
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Brighton and Chelsea.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Brighton vs Chelsea?
On our numbers Brighton have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Chelsea 34%.
How many goals will there be in Brighton vs Chelsea?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Brighton vs Chelsea?
Our predicted score is Brighton 1–1 Chelsea, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Brighton vs Chelsea?
Brighton vs Chelsea (Premier League) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Amex Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
