Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
Manchester United or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Manchester United to win @ 1.70 – our chance 63% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultManchester United to win ✓63% · @1.70
Double chanceManchester United or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.54
Manchester United vs Aston Villa preview and prediction
The match
Manchester United host Aston Villa in the Premier League on Sunday 15 March, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Old Trafford. Manchester United are 18th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Aston Villa sit 10th on 13 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Manchester United's last 3: LWW Most recently they lost to Newcastle 1–2 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Aston Villa's last 4: WLLD Most recently they beat Lille 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Manchester United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Manchester United and 0.8 for Aston Villa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Manchester United 63%, draw 23%, Aston Villa 14%.
Safer route: Manchester United or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Manchester United to win at 1.70 – 63% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Manchester United or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Manchester United 1–0 Aston Villa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Manchester United63%fair 1.58 · @1.70
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @4.00
Aston Villa14%fair 6.99 · @4.40
2.83Expected goals
1.98Manchester United xG
0.85Aston Villa xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: Manchester United 2.0 – 0.8 Aston Villa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Manchester United to win✓
63%
1.58
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Manchester United or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Manchester United ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Manchester United / FT Manchester United✗
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.54
–
Form
Manchester United – last 3
LWW
4 Mar
@ Newcastle
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs Crystal Palace
2–1
W
23 Feb
@ Everton
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Aston Villa – last 4
WLLD
12 Mar
@ Lille
1–0
W
4 Mar
vs Chelsea
1–4
L
27 Feb
@ Wolves
0–2
L
21 Feb
vs Leeds
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Manchester United and Aston Villa.
What is the prediction for Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Our pick is Manchester United or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
On our numbers Manchester United have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Aston Villa 14%.
How many goals will there be in Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Our predicted score is Manchester United 1–0 Aston Villa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Manchester United vs Aston Villa (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Old Trafford.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
