The Serie A sees Fiorentina take on Atalanta on Friday 22 May, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Fiorentina are 15th with 9 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Atalanta sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Fiorentina's last 5: WDLDD Most recently they beat Juventus 2–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atalanta's last 5: LLWWL Most recently they lost to Bologna 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Fiorentina arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Fiorentina and 1.4 for Atalanta. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 62%.
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fiorentina36%fair 2.75 · @2.56
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.45
Atalanta41%fair 2.45 · @2.56
2.64Expected goals
1.28Fiorentina xG
1.37Atalanta xG
62%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Fiorentina 1.3 – 1.4 Atalanta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atalanta to win✗
41%
2.45
2.56
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.45
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atalanta / FT Atalanta✗
23%
4.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.28
–
Form
Fiorentina – last 6
WDLDDW
17 May
@ Juventus
2–0
W
10 May
vs Genoa
0–0
D
4 May
@ AS Roma
0–4
L
26 Apr
vs Sassuolo
0–0
D
20 Apr
@ Lecce
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs Crystal Palace
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Atalanta – last 6
LLWWLL
17 May
vs Bologna
0–1
L
27 Apr
@ Cagliari
2–3
L
6 Apr
@ Lecce
3–0
W
22 Mar
vs Hellas Verona
1–0
W
18 Mar
@ Bayern München
1–4
L
10 Mar
vs Bayern München
1–6
L
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fiorentina and Atalanta.
What is the prediction for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
On our numbers Fiorentina have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Atalanta 41%.
How many goals will there be in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our predicted score is Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Fiorentina vs Atalanta (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
