Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 53% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNapoli to win ✗62% · @1.52
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.24
Napoli vs Bologna preview and prediction
The match
Bologna travel to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in the Serie A on Monday 11 May (19:45 WAT) to face Napoli. Napoli are 10th with 15 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Bologna sit 8th on 17 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Napoli's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Cremonese 4–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bologna's last 5: DLLWL Most recently they drew with Cagliari 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Napoli arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Napoli and 0.8 for Bologna. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Napoli 62%, draw 19%, Bologna 20%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 53% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Napoli 1–0 Bologna. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Napoli62%fair 1.62 · @1.52
Draw19%fair 5.33 · @4.00
Bologna20%fair 5.12 · @6.00
2.52Expected goals
1.72Napoli xG
0.80Bologna xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Napoli 1.7 – 0.8 Bologna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Napoli to win✗
62%
1.62
1.52
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.23
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Napoli / FT Napoli✗
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.24
–
Form
Napoli – last 6
WWWWLD
24 Apr
vs Cremonese
4–0
W
6 Apr
vs AC Milan
1–0
W
20 Mar
@ Cagliari
1–0
W
6 Mar
vs Torino
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Atalanta
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs AS Roma
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Bologna – last 6
DLLWLD
3 May
vs Cagliari
0–0
D
16 Apr
@ Aston Villa
0–4
L
9 Apr
vs Aston Villa
1–3
L
5 Apr
@ Cremonese
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Lazio
0–2
L
19 Mar
@ AS Roma
3–3
D
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Napoli and Bologna.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Napoli vs Bologna?
On our numbers Napoli have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Bologna 20%.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs Bologna?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Napoli vs Bologna?
Our predicted score is Napoli 1–0 Bologna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Napoli vs Bologna?
Napoli vs Bologna (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
