Value bet: Sassuolo to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLazio to win ✓44% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.17
Lazio vs Sassuolo preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Lazio take on Sassuolo on Monday 9 March, kicking off at 20:45 (WAT) at Stadio Olimpico. Lazio are 1st with 29 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Sassuolo sit 17th on 8 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 21 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sassuolo's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Atalanta 2–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Lazio and 1.1 for Sassuolo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 50%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lazio 44%, draw 22%, Sassuolo 33%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Sassuolo to win at 3.40 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Lazio 1–1 Sassuolo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lazio44%fair 2.26 · @2.18
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.20
Sassuolo33%fair 2.99 · @3.40
2.35Expected goals
1.29Lazio xG
1.07Sassuolo xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Lazio 1.3 – 1.1 Sassuolo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lazio to win✓
44%
2.26
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lazio / FT Lazio✗
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.17
–
Form
Lazio – last 2
DL
4 Mar
vs Atalanta
2–2
D
1 Mar
@ Torino
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sassuolo – last 3
WWW
1 Mar
vs Atalanta
2–1
W
20 Feb
vs Verona
3–0
W
15 Feb
@ Udinese
2–1
W
2.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lazio and Sassuolo.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lazio vs Sassuolo?
On our numbers Lazio have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sassuolo 33%.
How many goals will there be in Lazio vs Sassuolo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lazio vs Sassuolo?
Our predicted score is Lazio 1–1 Sassuolo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Lazio vs Sassuolo?
Lazio vs Sassuolo (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 9 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
