Sweden U21 vs Italy U21 prediction & analysis
Italy U21 or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Italy U21 to win @ 1.68 – our chance 63% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sweden U21 1.1 – 2.3 Italy U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Italy U21 travel as clear favourites – 63% to win, against 16% for Sweden U21.
Sweden U21 have taken 1 points from their last 1 matches (0W 1D 0L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 per game. Italy U21 have 3 points from their last 1 (1W 0D 0L), averaging 4.0 scored and 0.0 conceded. Italy U21 come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.3 goals (1.1 for Sweden U21, 2.3 for Italy U21). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (9%), 1–1 (9%).
Our pick is Italy U21 or draw at a 84% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.19. For a bigger price, Italy U21 to win at 1.68 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Italy U21 to win ✓ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.68 ▲ |
| Double chance | Italy U21 or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 60% | 1.65 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | 1.18 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.48 |
| Half-time result | Italy U21 ahead at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.10 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Italy U21 / FT Italy U21 ✓ | 42% | 2.38 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 10% | 10.21 | – |
Form
Sweden U21 – last 1
| 27 Mar | vs Montenegro U21 | 2–2 | D |
Italy U21 – last 1
| 26 Mar | vs North Macedonia U21 | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sweden U21 and Italy U21.
UEFA U21 Championship Qualification table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Italy U21 | 10 | +14 | 24 |
| 2 |  Republic of Ireland U21 | 10 | +6 | 19 |
| 3 |  Sweden U21 | 10 | +14 | 18 |
| 4 |  Bosnia-Herzegovina U21 | 10 | -7 | 11 |
| 5 |  Montenegro U21 | 10 | -3 | 11 |
| 6 |  Luxembourg U21 | 10 | -24 | 1 |
More UEFA U21 Championship Qualification predictions
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Northern Ireland U213
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Norway U210
Armenia U210
North Macedonia U212
Hungary U211
Ukraine U212
Finland U213
Cyprus U210
Czech Republic U215
Gibraltar U210
Kazakhstan U210Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sweden U21 vs Italy U21?
Our pick is Italy U21 or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Sweden U21 vs Italy U21?
On our numbers Sweden U21 have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Italy U21 63%.
How many goals will there be in Sweden U21 vs Italy U21?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Sweden U21 vs Italy U21?
Sweden U21 vs Italy U21 (UEFA U21 Championship Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Boras Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.