Latvia vs Gibraltar prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Latvia 1.9 – 0.4 Gibraltar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Latvia are clear favourites at home with a 75% chance of winning, against 10% for Gibraltar.
Latvia have taken 3 points from their last 1 matches (1W 0D 0L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.0 per game. Gibraltar have 0 points from their last 1 (0W 0D 1L), averaging 0.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Latvia come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.9 for Latvia, 0.4 for Gibraltar). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 42%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (19%), 2–0 (18%), 3–0 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Latvia have won 1, Gibraltar have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.30.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Latvia to win ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Double chance | Latvia or draw ✓ | 90% | 1.11 | 1.02 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.33 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.28 |
| Half-time result | Latvia ahead at half-time ✗ | 50% | 2.01 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Latvia / FT Latvia ✗ | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 19% | 5.26 | – |
Form
Latvia – last 1
| 26 Mar | @ Gibraltar | 1–0 | W |
Gibraltar – last 1
| 26 Mar | vs Latvia | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 26 Mar 2026 | Gibraltar v Latvia | 0–1 |
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Montenegro | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 2 |  Cyprus | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 |  Armenia | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 |  Latvia | 4 | -4 | 1 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
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Malta0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Latvia vs Gibraltar?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Latvia vs Gibraltar?
On our numbers Latvia have a 75% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Gibraltar 10%.
How many goals will there be in Latvia vs Gibraltar?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
When is Latvia vs Gibraltar?
Latvia vs Gibraltar (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Skonto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.