Primera División Apertura · Uruguay · Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla
Cerro Largo
Progreso
Cerro Largo vs Progreso prediction & analysis
Cerro Largo or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25
Value bet: Cerro Largo to win @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Cerro Largo 1.6 – 0.7 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Cerro Largo hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 16% for Progreso.
Cerro Largo have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. Progreso have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. Progreso come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.6 for Cerro Largo, 0.7 for Progreso). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Cerro Largo have won 1, Progreso have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Cerro Largo or draw at a 84% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Cerro Largo to win at 1.90 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Cerro Largo to win | 58% | 1.71 | 1.90 ▲ |
| Double chance | Cerro Largo or draw | 84% | 1.18 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 53% | 1.88 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 1.44 | 1.33 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.75 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Cerro Largo / FT Cerro Largo | 36% | 2.76 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 | 16% | 6.36 | – |
Form
Cerro Largo – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ Racing Montevideo | 1–3 | L |
| 25 Oct | vs Boston River | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Oct | @ Liverpool Montevideo | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Oct | @ Cerro | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Albion FC | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Oct | @ Danubio | 1–2 | L |
Progreso – last 6
| 1 Nov | vs Defensor Sporting | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Oct | @ Wanderers | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Juventud | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ Penarol | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | @ Liverpool Montevideo | 2–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Racing Montevideo | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 3 May 2026 | Progreso v Cerro Largo | 0–1 |
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Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
Our pick is Cerro Largo or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
On our numbers Cerro Largo have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Progreso 16%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
Cerro Largo vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.