Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.44
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 57% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Bangladesh 1.0 – 0.9 Sri Lanka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Bangladesh and Sri Lanka on our numbers – 44% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 19% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Bangladesh have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (1W 0D 5L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 3.0 per game. Sri Lanka have 15 points from their last 6 (5W 0D 1L), averaging 2.5 scored and 1.2 conceded. Sri Lanka come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 1.9 goals (1.0 for Bangladesh, 0.9 for Sri Lanka). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 57% likely. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is better than our fair price of 1.32, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Under 2.5 goals at 2.10 is our value angle (57% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bangladesh to win | 44% | 2.27 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 81% | 1.23 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score | 54% | 1.84 | 2.20 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.76 | 2.10 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | 1.44 ▲ |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 51% | 1.98 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw | 22% | 4.46 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 | 15% | 6.76 | – |
Form
Bangladesh – last 6
| 1 Oct | @ Indonesia | 2–9 | L |
| 28 Sep | @ Singapore | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Sep | vs Malaysia | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Jun | @ San Marino | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Mar | @ Singapore | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Mar | @ Vietnam | 0–3 | L |
Sri Lanka – last 6
| 5 Oct | @ Mauritius | 3–2 | W |
| 2 Oct | @ Mauritius | 0–3 | L |
| 30 Sep | @ Seychelles | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Seychelles | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Jun | vs Bhutan | 4–1 | W |
| 31 Mar | @ Chinese Taipei | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
SAFF Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bangladesh | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 2 |  Sri Lanka | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 |  Bhutan | 2 | -1 | 1 |
More SAFF Championship predictions
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MaldivesFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
On our numbers Bangladesh have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Sri Lanka 37%.
How many goals will there be in Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
When is Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka (SAFF Championship) kicks off on Wednesday 11 November 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Bangabandhu National Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.