Primera Nacional · Argentina · Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano
Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.40
Value bet: Deportivo Moron to win @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Deportivo Moron 1.5 – 0.7 Colegiales expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Deportivo Moron hold the edge on home soil with a 57% chance of winning, against 17% for Colegiales.
Deportivo Moron have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. Colegiales have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 1.2 scored and 0.3 conceded. Colegiales come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.5 for Deportivo Moron, 0.7 for Colegiales). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (18%), 2–0 (13%), 0–0 (12%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.40 is close to our fair price of 1.51. For a bigger price, Deportivo Moron to win at 1.90 is our value angle (57% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Deportivo Moron to win | 57% | 1.76 | 1.90 ▲ |
| Double chance | Deportivo Moron or draw | 83% | 1.21 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score | 54% | 1.86 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 60% | 1.65 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 66% | 1.51 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 84% | 1.19 | 1.12 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 47% | 2.12 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Deportivo Moron / FT Deportivo Moron | 34% | 2.95 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 | 18% | 5.64 | – |
Form
Deportivo Moron – last 6
| 31 Oct | vs Ciudad de Bolívar | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Oct | @ Almirante Brown | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Atletico Mitre | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ CA Estudiantes | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs All Boys | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Los Andes | 1–2 | L |
Colegiales – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ San Martin Tucuman | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Oct | vs Atletico DE Rafaela | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | @ Agropecuario | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Tristan Suarez | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Oct | @ Club Atlético Güemes | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Chacarita Juniors | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Moron and Colegiales.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Godoy Cruz | 36 | +20 | 66 |
| 2 |  Ferro Carril Oeste | 36 | +7 | 66 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Moron | 36 | +16 | 61 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Madryn | 36 | +21 | 60 |
| 5 |  Colon Santa Fe | 36 | +18 | 60 |
| 6 |  Almirante Brown | 36 | +4 | 51 |
| 7 |  Ciudad de Bolívar | 36 | -3 | 51 |
| 8 |  CA Estudiantes | 36 | 0 | 49 |
| 9 |  Chaco For Ever | 36 | +2 | 46 |
| 10 |  Los Andes | 36 | +1 | 43 |
| 11 |  All Boys | 36 | -8 | 41 |
| 12 |  San Telmo | 36 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 |  Atletico Mitre | 36 | -11 | 40 |
| 14 |  Racing Cordoba | 36 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 |  Defensores De Belgrano | 36 | -9 | 39 |
| 16 |  Central Norte | 36 | -9 | 38 |
| 17 |  Acassuso | 36 | -10 | 35 |
| 18 |  San Miguel | 36 | -15 | 33 |
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Tristan SuarezFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales?
On our numbers Deportivo Moron have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Colegiales 17%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
When is Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales?
Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.