Liga De Expansión MX · Mexico · Estadio Guaycura

CA La Paz

WWWDW
3–3
FT

Tlaxcala

LWWDW

CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala prediction & analysis

69%
Footrivo pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.45 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.33Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultCA La Paz to win ✗62% · @1.56
Double chanceCA La Paz or draw ✓81% · @1.16
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.42
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.58

Win chances

CA La Paz62%fair 1.61 · @1.56
Draw19%fair 5.26 · @4.45
Tlaxcala19%fair 5.30 · @4.55
3.59Expected goals
2.35CA La Paz xG
1.24Tlaxcala xG
65%Both score
69%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

2–19%
1–18%
2–08%
3–17%
1–06%
3–06%

From our goals model: CA La Paz 2.4 – 1.2 Tlaxcala expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

CA La Paz are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 19% for Tlaxcala.

CA La Paz have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.2 per game. Tlaxcala have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.

We expect around 3.6 goals (2.4 for CA La Paz, 1.2 for Tlaxcala). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 1–1 (8%), 2–0 (8%).

In their last 3 meetings, CA La Paz have won 2, Tlaxcala have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.3 goals per game.

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is close to our fair price of 1.45.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultCA La Paz to win ✗62%1.611.56
Double chanceCA La Paz or draw ✓81%1.231.16
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓65%1.551.42
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓86%1.161.06
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69%1.451.33
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗52%1.931.80
Half-time resultCA La Paz ahead at half-time ✓47%2.13–
Half-time / full-timeHT CA La Paz / FT CA La Paz ✗41%2.46–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.58–

Form

CA La Paz – last 6

WWWDWL
5 Nov@ Tlaxcala1–0W
31 Octvs Dorados3–0W
25 Oct@ CDS Tampico Madero3–1W
17 Octvs Tlaxcala2–2D
10 Oct@ Tapatío4–2W
3 Octvs Venados FC1–2L
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Tlaxcala – last 6

LWWDWD
5 Novvs CA La Paz0–1L
31 Oct@ Cruz Azul Hidalgo2–0W
25 Octvs Correcaminos Uat2–0W
17 Oct@ CA La Paz2–2D
10 Octvs Piratas4–2W
4 Oct@ Monarcas1–1D
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

5 Nov 2026Tlaxcala v CA La Paz0–1
17 Oct 2026CA La Paz v Tlaxcala2–2
8 Mar 2026CA La Paz v Tlaxcala2–0

More Liga De Expansión MX predictions

FT Monarcas2 Venados FC1 632116 1Monarcas to win 63%@1.65 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala?

On our numbers CA La Paz have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Tlaxcala 19%.

How many goals will there be in CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala?

We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.

When is CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala?

CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 04:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Guaycura.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.