Copa Colombia · Colombia · Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin prediction & analysis
Atletico Nacional or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 1.7 – 0.8 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Atletico Nacional are clear favourites at home with a 60% chance of winning, against 17% for Independiente Medellin.
Atletico Nacional have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 per game. Independiente Medellin have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.7 for Atletico Nacional, 0.8 for Independiente Medellin). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Atletico Nacional have won 1, Independiente Medellin have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 5.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Atletico Nacional or draw at a 83% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.20.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Atletico Nacional to win ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Atletico Nacional or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.87 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 42% | 2.36 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional ✓ | 37% | 2.67 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.05 | – |
Form
Atletico Nacional – last 6
| 9 Oct | vs Deportes Tolima | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Oct | vs Junior | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Chapecoense-sc | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Sep | vs Millonarios | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Sep | @ Llaneros | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Sep | @ Internacional de Bogota | 3–2 | W |
Independiente Medellin – last 6
| 12 Oct | @ America de Cali | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Santa Fe | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Sep | vs Millonarios | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ Junior | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Sep | vs Jaguares | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | @ Bucaramanga | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 12 Apr 2026 | Independiente Medellin v Atletico Nacional | 2–3 |
Copa Colombia table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independiente Medellin | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 2 |  Fortaleza FC | 4 | +2 | 5 |
| 3 |  Leones FC | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 4 |  Cucuta | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Orsomarso | 4 | -2 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Atletico Nacional or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Independiente Medellin 17%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin (Copa Colombia) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.